UNEP/GRID-Sioux Falls

PART IV

FINANCING THE PLAN OF ACTION TO COMBAT DESERTIFICATION

A. DESERTIFICATION COSTS

(I) COST OF THE DAMAGE

1. There is no methodology for an accurate estimation of total economic loss due to desertification as there are far too many unaccountable losses involved, particularly off-site and social losses. Direct on-site losses can be calculated more or less reliably taking into account an estimated loss in productive capacity (income foregone) due to land degradation in different land use systems. This could be roughly calculated based on the experience of several countries with varying economic situations.

2. In 1977, UNCOD studies calculated that the process of desertification made a significant contribution to land degradation throughout the drylands of the world and that the losses in productive capacity (income foregone) because of this, amounted to nearly US $ 26 billion per year. It was further estimated in 1980 that the cost of not stopping land degradation in drylands over the next 20 years was in the region of US $ 520 billion, excluding the price of suffering of the millions of affected people.

3. The following basic figures for the average yearly income foregone due to desertification were assumed for the present assessment, at 1990 prices:

    US $ 250 per hectare of irrigated land at least moderately degraded;

    US $ 38 per hectare of rainfed cropland at least moderately degraded;

    US $ 7 per hectare of rangeland at least moderately degraded.

4. Based on the above figures and taking into account the total areas affected by degradation in each of the land use categories (43 million hectares of irrigated land, 216 million hectares of rainfed cropland and 3,333 million hectares of rangeland), the following figures for annual average income foregone due to land degradation were arrived at, in million US $:

Continent

Irrigated land

Rainfed Cropland

Rangeland

Total

Africa

475

1,855

6,966

9,296

Asia

7,953

4,647

8,313

20,913

Australia

63

544

2,529

3,136

Europe

474

450

564

1,488

N. America

1,465

441

2,878

4,784

S. America

355

252

2,084

2,691

Total

10,785

8,189

23,334

42,308

5. Naturally, global direct annual loss (income foregone) of US $ 42.3 billion is a very rough average estimate as the actual figures vary greatly from country to country and from continent to continent. This figure just shows an order of magnitude of the loss involved. It also shows that the cost of inaction over the next 20 years will be of an order of US $ 850 billion as compared with the earlier, 1980, estimate of US $ 520 billion.

6. The inter-continental comparison however, gives an idea of differences between various regions of the world. The major loss occurs apparently in Asia due to the largest area affected; then follows Africa, while Europe loses the least amount.

7. As for different land use systems, the major loss occurs due to degradation of global rangeland because of its enormously large area which is affected. Losses in irrigated land and rainfed cropland are more or less the same. However, large differences exist between continents in this respect and, of course, between individual countries.

8. If the 1980 figure is taken as the lowest estimate and the 1991 figure as the highest, both being rather conservative, then the calculations show that the world's inability to combat desertification during fourteen years from 1978 to 1991 has already cost the world some US $ 300 to 600 billion in income foregone.

9. Presently, there is not even a rough estimate available of the off-site and other indirect economic losses due to desertification. Some studies suggest that it might be 2-3 or even up to 10 times higher than the direct on-site losses. This question should be more extensively studied and, of course site-specifically, as the differences between various ecological and socio- economic situations throughout the world do not permit any generalization in this respect.

(II) COST OF PREVENTION, CORRECTION AND REHABILITATION

10. Actions of combating desertification are inseparable from actions of resource development and management in drylands. Schemes that aim at arresting degradation of rangelands, rainfed and irrigated croplands, at sand dune stabilization, at establishing large-scale green belts, at introducing soil and water conservation systems in resource management, or at reclaiming new areas for productive use, are apt to be costly. In the majority of developing countries fully or partly dependant on their dryland resource base and having accumulated problems of poverty and underdevelopment, costs will be higher. While the projects designed for preventing further land degradation and sustaining its productivity might have reasonable costs and economic feasibility, the rehabilitation projects are generally non-competitive in terms of market values, especially when compared with prevalent rates of interest. Rates of return for the capital investments in these projects are rather low. Investments in land rehabilitation projects commonly do not pay well financially, but their social and humanitarian values as means of ensuring food security and participation in production are immense.

11. In 1980, it was estimated that a 20 year world-wide programme to reclaim desertified lands would require about US $ 90 billion or US $ 4.5 billion a year; developing countries in need of financial assistance would require US $ 48 billion of this amount or US $ 2.4 billion a year. There was no attempt made at that time to estimate the cost of preventive measures to arrest further desertification of lands that were not affected or only slightly affected by the process.

12. It is assumed that drylands that are not affected or only slightly affected by desertification would require measures directed to prevention of land degradation and sustaining their productivity. Moderately affected land would require certain corrective measures in addition, e.g. provision of adequate drainage in irrigated croplands. Drylands, which are severely or very severely degraded, need serious efforts for their rehabilitation and return to productive use. In different land use systems, the costs of preventive, corrective and rehabilitation measures will be quite different, not speaking about the differences between the costs in different ecological and socio-economic situations in various countries of the world.

13. The following global average indicative figures for the costs of direct anti-desertification measures* in different land use systems and for various degrees of land degradation were obtained on the basis of an analysis of large numbers of relevant projects in different parts of the world, in US $ per 1 hectare:

Degree of Land
Degradation

Irrigated
Lands

Rainfed
Croplands

Rangelands

Slight to none

100-300

50-150

5-15

Moderate

500-1,500

100-300

10-30

Severe

2,000-4,000

500-1,500

40-60

Very severe

3,000-4,000

2,000-4,000

3-7

___________________

* Description of thus costed relevant measures for each land use system and for each degree of land degradation are given in Tables 9-11 in the Annex. Measures do not include insurance against recurrent drought. The range of cost figures in each of the land use systems is mostly determined by the specificity of local natural and socio-economic conditions at the site of every particular project and not by the fact that it is implemented either in a developed or in a developing country or in any specific continent; there are certain extremely low and extremely high costs in some instances throughout the world but they are excluded from these global average ranges.

14. Taking into account the above costs and the relevant figures for the world status of desertification (Tables 1-3 in the Annex), the calculations give the following costs of direct anti- desertification measures, which should be considered as showing only an order of magnitude for the world as a whole, in billion US $ (see details in Tables 9-11 in the Annex):

Preventive
measures

Corrective
measures

Rehabilitation
measures

Total

Irrigated lands

10-31

17-50

21-41

48-122

Rainfed croplands

12-36

18-55

22-59

53-150

Rangelands

6-18

13-38

80-120

99-176

Total drylands

28-85

48-143

123-220

200-448

Per one year for a
20-Year programme

1.4-4.2

2.4-7.2

6.2-11.0

10-22.4

15. Compared with 1980s estimation of US $ 90 billion, or US $ 4.5 billion a year for a 20- Year programme, the present estimate of US $ 171-363 billion, or US 8.6-18.2 billion per year, for the corrective and rehabilitation measures in drylands affected by desertification at least moderately is three to four times higher due to the following reasons: (a) more accurate land degradation assessment in 1991, and (b) growth of world prices and costs of land reclamation. No similar comparison can be made for the cost of preventive measures in drylands as it was not calculated in the 1980 studies.

16. Taking the global indicative sums and averages for a 20-Year programme, the simple comparison would show the following pattern, in billion US $:

Annual income
forgone due to
desertification

Annual cost
of preventive
measures

Annual cost
of corrective
measures

Annual cost
of rehabilitation
measures

Total annual
cost of all
measures

Irrigated lands

10.8

0.5-1.6

0.9-2.5

1.0-2.0

2.4-6.1

Rainfed cropland

8.2

0.6-1.8

0.9-2.8

1.1-3.0

2.7-7.5

Rangelands

23.3

0.3-0.9

0.7-1.9

2.0-6.0

5.0-8.8

Total drylands

42.3

1.4-4.2

2.4-7.2

6.2-11.0

10.0-22.4

17. The above comparison will give the following simple cost/benefit ratios: 1/2.5 for irrigated croplands, 1/1.5 for rainfed croplands, 1/3.5 for rangelands, and 1/2.5 for the whole anti-desertification campaign in the drylands. It would be misleading, however, to use these figures as accurate guiding points for an economic evaluation of the PACD, because the time profiles of costs and benefits are different. This is the result of the fact that anti-desertification programmes have a long gestation period and benefits do not appear until many years after. Therefore, the above global calculations provide only a general picture of an order of magnitude, while the accurate economic cost/benefit analyses should be made site-specific on a county-by-country basis in order to obtain meaningful operational estimates.

18. The above global costs of direct preventive, corrective and rehabilitation anti- desertification measures should be divided between the industrialized and other countries (18) which need no financial assistance and those developing countries (81) which need external assistance to implement their programmes to combat desertification. The present assessment gives the following pattern in billion US $, for a 20-Year programme:

Preventive
measures

Corrective
measures

Rehabilitation
measures

Total
cost

Irrigated lands, total

10-31

17-50

21-41

48-122

In industrialized countries

4-13

7-20

7-14

20-40

In developing countries

6-18

10-30

14-27

28-82

Rainfed croplands, total

12-36

18-55

22-59

53-150

In industrialized countries

5-14

7-24

8-18

21-34

In developing countries

7-22

11-31

14-41

32-116

Rangelands, total

6-18

13-38

80-120

99-176

In industrialized countries

3-9

6-14

33-48

39-82

In developing countries

3-9

7-24

47-72

60-94

World drylands, total

28-85

48-143

123-220

200-448

In industrialized countries

12-36

20-58

48-80

80-156

In developing countries

16-49

28-85

75-140

120-292

19. The majority of developing countries affected by desertification are the poorest countries in the world, including the least developed ones with very weak economies, overburdened with persistent poverty and growing foreign debts. It may thus be assumed that, in order to implement anti-desertification preventive, corrective and rehabilitation measures in 81 developing countries with a total cost of US $ 120-292 billion within 20 years, some 50% of the cost could at least be covered by the countries themselves while 50% need to be provided through the external assistance. Naturally, there will be a great difference between individual countries in this respect: some will require only 10% in external assistance, while others might demand almost 90%. The following is a summary of the above calculations on a yearly basis, in billion US $:

Preventive
measures

Corrective
measures

Rehabilitation
measures

Total

Total global cost

1.4-4.2

2.4-7.2

6.2-11.0

10.0-22.4

Cost to 18 countries
   not requiring
   external assistance

0.6-1.8

1.0-3.0

2.4-3.0

4.0-7.8

Cost to 81 countries
   requiring
   external assistance

0.8-2.4

1.4-4.2

3.8-8.04

6.0-14.6

20. All above figures indicate the costs of only direct anti-desertification measures, (preventive, corrective and rehabilitation), while the support measures which are recommended in Part III of this report, were not costed because of great differences between the countries concerned. These costs are to be borne almost totally by the countries themselves as they concern the appropriate administrative, legislative, economic and policy adjustment as well as education, training and extension. In any case, it is advisable to bear in mind, that the total cost of combating desertification, including the cost of full implementation of the recommendations of the PACD ensuring sustainable development of drylands, might be several times higher then the above figures of direct costs. Incidentally, the ratios between direct and indirect costs of an order from 1:4 to 1:10 are more or less common in the implementation of the majority of the World Bank, IFAD or FAO large-scale projects concerned with land development and rehabilitation.

B. FINANCING THE PACD

(I) SUMMARY OF PAST EXPERIENCE

21. The UN General Assembly by its Resolution 32/172 of 19 December 1977 taking note of the report of UN Conference on Desertification 29/8-9/9/1977 (UNCOD) requested regional commissions to take intensified and sustained action in support of national efforts to combat desertification, to assist governments, at their request, in the implementation of the PACD; it further requested the organs, organizations and other bodies of the UN system to support international action to combat desertification within the context of the PACD. The General Assembly also authorized the Executive Director of UNEP to convene immediately a consultative group, which would meet as and when required, comprising of representatives of organs and organizations of UN system, such other organizations as might be required, donor countries, multilateral financial agencies as well as developing countries having substantial interest in combating desertification, to assist in mobilizing resources for the activities undertaken within the framework of implementing the Plan of Action. The General Assembly also endorsed in principle the creation of a special account within the United Nations for implementing the Plan of Action.

DESCON

22. In 1978 the Executive Director of UNEP in response to the above convened the Consultative Group for Desertification Control [DESCON] to its first session, and stated at the opening that "it was not a creation of a new organization but mechanism and forum ensuring that resources are invested in the most effective way; and the scope of work will develop and expand as experience is gained from the field and as new horizons of cooperative actions and new sources of support are explored". The first session established procedures for mobilizing resources. Many government representatives, however, expressed their preference of dealing with national projects through existing and established bilateral negotiation mechanisms; and that support to transnational projects could be sought through mechanisms like DESCON.

23. Though UNEP Governing Council and UN General Assembly requested the Executive Director of UNEP, to examine ways and means to enhance efficiency of DESCON and repeated appeals to DESCON to intensify its efforts to mobilize funds/resources for the implementation of the PACD, donors maintained their preference to use bilateral negotiation mechanisms and recipient countries kept on presenting to DESCON projects of inadequate national priority. This was the issue dividing the Group members and restraining the full realization of the fund raising function of DESCON for its all subsequent sessions, until the Ad-hoc working group established by DESCON-6 and the DESCON Special Session in 1988 recommended discontinuation of the mechanism. The Group at its 7th Regular Session in December 1990 resolved to recommend to the General Assembly (through the Governing Council of UNEP) to amend the Group's mandate and discontinue the direct resource mobilization function altogether.

24. In the course of six regular sessions of DESCON various forms to improve Group's performance were tried and new dimensions to its functions were added, i.e.:

    (i) By its Resolution 38/165 of 28 February 1984, the General Assembly decided to expand the mandate of DESCON to also "include information exchange on anti- desertification policies and programmes of its participants, in addition to its basic mandate";

    (ii) And by its Resolution 39/168 of 17 December 1984 decided to expand the Groups mandate to also include explicitly responsibility for advising the Executive Director of UNEP on:

      (a) The progress and effectiveness of activities implemented under the Plan of Action, identifying constraints and possible solutions to problems, taking account of relevant evaluations and case studies;

      (b) Programme priorities of the United Nations Environment Programme related to problems of desertification;

      (c) Measures required to improve implementation of the Plan of Action on a regional and world-wide basis.

25. By end of 1986 it was obvious, as reported by the Executive Director of UNEP to the 15th Governing Council (ref. UNEP/GC.15/9/Add.4), that DESCON's capacity to secure financial resources for projects presented to it had been inadequate to the needs of the Plan of Action. Over the eight-year period 1978-85 (DESCON 1-5) a total of 74 projects were submitted to the Group of which only 29 have been implemented either in part or in their entirety. The total funding amounted to US $ 47.3 million as compared with estimates of a total cost of US $ 540.6 million for all 74 projects.

26. In addition at DESCON-6 in 1987 another 13 projects worth US $ 29.0 million (and requiring about US $ 24,0 million external assistance) were presented. Many donors and UN organizations expressed interest, but no firm funding commitments were made. At DESCON-7, 9 countries (Argentina, Mali, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, United Republic of Tanzania and Yemen) presented to the Group their National Plans of Action to Combat Desertification; and SADCC presented its sub-regional (Kalahari-Namib) action plan. Six of these plans (excluding Argentina, Nigeria and Syria) contained projects requiring funding assistance worth over US $ 720 million, but no interest to pledge funding was expressed by donors through DESCON mechanism; they however expressed their preference (once gain) to consider such projects (of NPACDs) through existing and established bilateral negotiation mechanisms.

Special Account

27. As of 31 December 1988 a total of only 166,886 US Dollars has been paid to the account. UN General Assembly by its Resolution 44/172 of 19 December 1989 decided to close the account and requested the Executive Director of UNEP to take necessary steps to do so. With interest added to the collections, the account, as at 31 January 1991, stood at US $ 313,854, the amount of which has been utilized in 1991 for the preparation of the expert studies requested by the General Assembly at its resolution 44/172. As at 31 March 1991 the status of contributions showed a balance of unpaid pledges as US $ 12,404.

UNSO Joint Venture of UNEP and UNDP

28. During 1979-1990 UNDP and UNEP together have contributed US $ 20.6 million (10.0 million for programme and 10.6 million for institutional support) to the Joint Venture with the United National Sudano-Sahelian Office (UNSO) which was created by UN GA Res. 33/88 of 15 December 1978 for the implementation of the PACD in the Sudano-Sahelian Region. In addition to this seed money, US $ 198.3 million were made available to UNSO Trust Fund between 1974 and end 1987. More than 75% or approximately US $ 151 million of this pertained to the projects related to the implementation of the PACD in the region. In 1988-1990 an additional US $ 92.8 million were mobilized by UNSO through its Trust Fund, thus totalling the UNSO Trust Fund contributions up to the end of 1990 the sum of US $ about 290 million.

Other Sources of financing

29. The national expenditures as well as bilateral contributions for the PACD implementation by donor countries and international agencies both within and outside of the United Nations system are not known. Only scattered information from a few donors and agencies is available presenting no clear global picture.

30. Many international agencies and organizations such as the World Bank, UNDP, UNEP, UNSO, FAO, IFAD, UNESCO, WFP, WHO, WMO and others, have contributed financially to the implementation of the PACD. In the majority of the projects financed by these bodies, however, it would be very difficult to separate funding for anti-desertification actions per se and that for other activities implemented in the countries affected by desertification.

31. Some information on the level of financing of the PACD may be found in the reports of relevant organizations, although it would be incomplete and just showing the examples:

    • UNEP's expenditures (excluding annual contribution of US $ 0.5 million to the UNSO Joint Venture of UNDP/UNEP) for 73 projects including global assessment, co-ordinating and catalyzing activities as well as the assistance to developing countries, amounted to US $ 28.1 million for the period of 1978-1991 or some US $ 2.0 million per year;

    • UNSO, within its UNDP/UNEP Joint Venture and through its Trust fund, has mobilized about US $ 312 million during 1979-1990 or some US $ 28 million per year, out of which the sum of US $ 141.6 million were spent on financing 202 projects directly related to combating desertification in 22 countries of the Sudano- Sahelian region; projects of assistance to the region increased from US $ 15 million in 1986 to US $ 27 million in 1989; new operational activities approved by UNSO in 1990 totaled US $ 40 million: rehabilitation of gum arabic plantations in Kordofan and Darfur provinces in the Sudan, sand-dune stabilization in Mauritania, integrated resource management projects in association with the local population, the Ecological Monitoring Centre in Senegal, the tree seed centres throughout the region, etc.;

    • FAO is currently supporting 184 projects related to combating desertification in developing countries, mainly in Africa, with financial assistance of US $ 85 million;

    • UNDP in the Fourth Country Programme (1987-1991) approved 125 projects directly related to drought and desertification, with a financial contribution of US $ 129 million, 111 at national level and 14 regional projects;

    • the World Bank in 1990 approved 11 free-standing environmental loans related to combating desertification, mainly for African countries, as against only 2 in 1989;

    • the European Economic Community, within a new Environment Title of the IVth LomŽ Convention (1991), has committed a package of grant aid and other forms of financial assistance amounting to nearly US $ 14 billion over the next 5 years to the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, which encourage governments to draw up long-term plans for placing environmental concerns including desertification in the centre of national development strategies.

32. It is estimated that in 1986 Africa received US $ 490 million in assistance related to problems of desertification and drought, which was approximately 3.5% of the total assistance for that year. The level of total official development assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa was US $ 13.4 billion in 1988 (only US $ 28.9 per capita). Net resources flows to Sub-Saharan Africa in 1989, measured in 1986 prices and exchange rates, declined in real terms overall from US $ 19.4 billion to US $ 18.3 billion.

33. Some idea on the achieved level of financing of the PACD at global level might be derived from the fact that all national loan and saving systems, local government budgets and formal credit institutions, multilateral and bilateral lending agencies, and regional development banks, over the past thirty years contributed about US $ 16 billion to agricultural programmes, that is nearly US $ 0.5 billion a year. Only a fraction of this went to the areas affected by desertification and still smaller fraction to anti-desertification measures per se. It should also be noted that financing of agricultural activities, both related to anti-desertification actions and in more humid areas, is but a small proportion of total funding by major international institutions, being however larger in the international assistance programmes, where it has fluctuated from 18 to 44% over the last ten years. With bilateral donors, contributions to agriculture have fluctuated from 10 to 18% of their ODA figures over the same period.

34. Other estimates indicate that some US $ 0.6 billion per year provided aid for activiites related to combating desertification in the developing countries during early 80s. These figures may suggest a comparable estimate of US $ 0.85 billion per year at present available to activities related to desertification.

35. The above data show very clearly that the amount spent by the world community during 1978-1991 on direct or supporting actions to combat desertification was far below the amount needed for the implementation of the PACD and for achieving substantial results. Likewise, the existing mechanisms for mobilization of the resources and financing the PACD appeared to be inadequate.

(II) MOBILIZATION OF RESOURCES

36. Financial assistance to developing countries struggling against desertification should satisfy the following criteria : it must be additional, that is over and above regular budgets and conventional extra budgetary resources, predictable, sustainable, and with a degree of automaticity. Net additional financing and technical assistance to developing countries for combating desertification should be provided by the donor community and international institutions on terms which will not further exacerbate debt and trade problems of recipient countries but rather enhance their development process.

37. In order to mobilize the resources, structural adjustment in public revenue generation and reallocation of expenditures at country level and the structural adjustment in the allocation of expenditures, grants and loans by donors, both bilateral and multilateral, should be undertaken. Particularly, the state of financing of the PACD and drylands development in general should be reconsidered and substantially increased.

38. Reallocation of resources and mobilization of additional resources for financing the PACD in developing countries will be greatly facilitated if the process is oriented by a shared view of priorities, opportunities and constraints in the PACD implementation within a flexible system for accumulation, analysis and exchange of information among the various actors at local, national, regional and international levels.

39. At national level, the role of local financial institutions, which can probably operate with a greater sensitivity to local needs and conditions, should be emphasized.

40. In provision of funds and credits, small-scale and/or resource-poor farmers/pastoralists and local communities at grassroots level should be targeted in order to ensure strong local economic bases for community development and to answer farmers/pastoralists needs in a direct way, rather than to finance the national agricultural sector which often targets exports' production and the consequent degradation and exhaustion of natural resources leading to desertification. Rural micro-enterprise projects that focus on long-term sustainability should constitute the major recipient body for the financial and technical assistance.

41. Sources of additional financing of the PACD vary and may include inter alia the following:

    • national budgets;

    • funding by national private and co-operative, state and local financial institutions;

    • funding by major international financing agencies like the World Bank, IFAD, WFP, regional development banks;

    • funding through multilateral and bilateral aid programmes;

    • loans from governments and world capital markets on concessionary basis;

    • reduction of external debts;

    • debt-for-PACD swaps;

    • funding and in-kind participation by international, regional, national and local NGOs;

    • funding and assistance from major international agencies, e.g. UNDP, FAO, UNEP, UNESCO, WMO, ILO, WHO, etc., in respective fields of their interests;

    • Global Environmental Facility of the World Bank/UNDP/UNEP;

    • savings from disarmament;

    • special drawing rights-development links;

    • Earth Saving Bonds;

    • Ecotourism;

    • world-wide Environmental Lottery, etc.;

    • trust Funds and Foundations;

    • additional funds mobilized by the world community specifically for the PACD implementation through inter alia international taxation of trade flows and revenue taxes, taxation of reverse transfer of technology, tax on surpluses in balance of trade, consumption taxes, income from the use of international commons, military taxes, proceeds from IMF gold sales, carbon dioxide tax (emission tax and sink destruction tax), GNP general tax, etc.

42. Forms of financial assistance to developing countries, which cannot cope by themselves with the problem, could vary as well and include such as:

    • concessional loans, mainly from financial institutions;

    •"soft-term" loans with long-term repayment schedules;

    • grants;

    • technical and financial assistance on non-reimbursable concessional terms.

43. New international or regional mechanism(s) that could be created, or existing mechanism(s) developed, to manage the process of mobilizing and allocating the financial and technical resources required to address global environment/developing issues, including desertification, might include the following:

    • DESCON in its revised and revitalized form;

    • international financial corporation that could provide finances on concessionary basis to anti-desertification programmes;

    • international anti-desertification convention;

    • global anti-desertification trust fund;

    • consortium arrangements.

44. Within the scope of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, probably, a United International Environmental Fund (Consortium) might be considered, with an appropriate share of the PACD.

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