UNEP Logo CIESIN logo

African Population Database Documentation [ Back | Contents | Next ]
 

A.1. Illustrative example of the stability of population estimates

For Israel, population figures were available for a number of years in the Statistical Yearbook of Israel 1991. The following table shows the total population for the six districts of Israel for four recent years. The last three columns show total population estimates for 1995 based on average annual growth rates between each of the first four years and 1990. The choice of the growth rate obviously has a considerable effect on the resulting estimate. Even allowing for the special nature of Israel's population dynamics due to the country's immigration policy (the most likely explanation for the high 1989-90 rates), the fact that the estimates are strongly dependent on the available input data becomes clear.

District Total population (`000)1 Average annual percentage growth rate Resulting estimates (`000) for 1995 based on rate for
  1985 1987 1989 1990 85-90 87-90 89-90 85-90 87-90 89-90
Jerusalem 506 533 556 578 2.66 2.70 3.88 660 662 702
Northern 707 732 763 805 2.60 3.17 5.36 917 943 1052
Haifa 593 601 613 656 2.02 2.92 6.78 726 759 921
Central 889 928 970 1032 2.98 3.54 6.20 1198 1232 1407
Tel Aviv 1015 1027 1044 1095 1.52 2.14 4.77 1181 1218 1390
Southern 511 526 542 574 2.33 2.91 5.74 645 664 765

1 Data Source: Central Bureau of Statistics (1991), Statistical Abstract of Israel 1991, Jerusalem.


UNEP Logo UN Logo United Nations Environment Programme
Global Resource Information Database

Division of Early Warning & Assessment - North America

Page Modified: September 2004